A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
