Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
